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Not Updated since 3/7/2008 7/6/2008  
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Welcome to
CommodityBulls.com
Analysis of Commodity Futures


About This Site


This website analyses approximately 250 commodity futures in North America and U.K. everyday. A very sophisticated computer program runs a unique sort of technical analysis based on the corrected time series of the commodities. It may not be apparent at the first glance but what is accomplished is truly amazing. The end of day data for all commodities is downloaded, each one is analyzed, signals and commentaries are generated and the site is updated. All of this is done in only a couple of hours after the markets are closed.

The work done at the background is very sophisticated but the presentation of the results to the viewers is fairly simple and user friendly. We post very simple but extremely appropriate trading signals, for all the commodities. These are LONG-IF, LONG CONFIRMED, SHORT-IF, SHORT CONFIRMED, HOLD and WAIT. The signals are accompanied with a daily commentary. Another unique feature of the site is its candlestick pages. The program is able to recognize 89 different candlestick formations and it can identify reversal and continuation patterns. Interested readers may go to www.candlesticker.com, which gives a thorough knowledge about each pattern. Aside from this, the program itself identifies the relevant candlestick pattern applicable to each commodity on daily basis, explains it shortly and generates a brief commentary.
The Philosophy


The philosophy shaping the signal system stems from our experiences, which extends into quite a few years. Based on our previous experiences; we decided to say farewell to the trend concept. In our view, it is an ill defined concept and unnecessarily constraints the investor to wait for the big rally. Unfortunately, such rallies occur rarely. The market is characterized by sideways and falling episodes most of the time. It is then important to devise a system, which can earn money in such markets as well. The only way to accomplish this difficult task is to create a truly dynamic system, which incorporates the participation of the investor. Mechanical trading systems assume a passive investor. System generates LONG or SHORT signals and the investor is supposed to passively obey them. Unfortunately, this approach does not conform to the nature of the market. Market is driven by moods and changes its perceptions very quickly. The only way to cope with this dilemma is to transform the investor into a dynamic element of the trading system. To accomplish this, the system generates conditional LONG-IF and SHORT-IF. The investor is not supposed to act immediately following these signals. The final decision is left to the market itself. We only define certain conditions that must hold in the next day to confirm the conditional LONG or SHORT signal. Investor himself or herself is supposed to check these conditions and decide to act if the conditions are favorable. If the investor is not sure about the fulfillment of the conditions, he or she may wait for the next signal. The next signal clearly shows if the conditional LONG or SHORT has been transformed into a LONG CONFIRMED and SHORT CONFIRMED or not. However doing so, the investor accepts a small time cost which means that he or she acts a bit late relative to an investor who follows the conditions himself or herself.
The Signals


LONG-IF and SHORT-IF are conditional pre-signals that are generated on the basis of the candlestick patterns. They are preliminary warnings posted for the next trading day. Traders should consider the signals as confirmed and place their orders in the direction of the signal, if only the market move in the next day proves that the preceding candlestick pattern is confirmed. If the market moves opposite to the signal, in other words, if the candlestick pattern is not confirmed, then the conditional signals should be taken as null and void and should be ignored. Our system occasionally prompts the investor to wait one more day thus allowing a second chance for confirmation.

LONG CONFIRMED and SHORT CONFIRMED are post-signals confirming the preceding conditional signals. They show that the candlestick pattern is confirmed, and they should be taken as a final warning and a last chance for traders to place their orders in the direction of the signal.

HOLD comes after a LONG CONFIRMED and stays until the next confirmed signal. It may also come after a LONG-IF or SHORT-IF, in cases the pre-signals are not confirmed. Traders are urged to keep their long positions as long as the HOLD tag stays.

WAIT comes after a SHORT CONFIRMED and stays until the next confirmed signal. It may also come after a LONG-IF or SHORT-IF, in cases the pre-signals are not confirmed. Traders are urged to keep their cash or short positions as long as the WAIT tag stays.

A transparent history of confirmed signals is given for each commodity futures. Wherever applicable the history is given for the last two years. The success and failure of the signals are clearly shown with checks and cross signs. Moreover, traders can also see the total percentage gain/loss in two years, if the trades were made in the direction of the signals.

Indices and stocks are rated according to their conformance to our signal system. Five stars is the highest rating. Even if a stock is not rated it may still give satisfactory results with our signal system. A stock with higher rating (stars) has a more successful signal history and is expected to give better results.

There is no fundamental analysis in this site. You won't also find news, experts, commentaries, rumors and gossips here, which are conducive to manipulation and wrong interpretation. Our aim was to create a truly objective system for the signals produced, daily commentaries and candlestick pattern recognition. True objectivity means there is no any human interference at all (including even us). So our system prevents the interference of human emotions such as greed, fear, sympathy, hate, panic, etc with the trading decisions.


Using This Site

Home Page

This is the introduction page. The main item on the Home Page is the table of suggested commodities. From each group 4 commodities are recommended corresponding to the LONG CONFIRMED, LONG-IF, SHORT-IF and SHORT CONFIRMED signals (from top to bottom) respectively.


Indices

Click on the "Indices" button on the top menu in order to see all the indices in one list. Then click on the ticker of the index you are interested in to find out the signal, daily commentary, candlestick pattern and the statistical stock data.


Markets

You may reach to the pages of seven group of commodities in North America and U.K. by using the top menu. You will be able to see all of the commodities of each group by clicking on the menu buttons. Click on the ticker of the commodity to see the signals, daily commentary, candlestick patterns and the statistical data.


Search Box

The search box is a very effective tool of our site. It allows you to directly reach any one of the 250 commodity futures simply by typing the ticker in the search box and then clicking on the "GO" button.


  Disclaimer  
 

The opinions provided herein are intended to inform. They come with no warranty of any kind. If you should choose to interpret CommodityBulls.com information as investment advice, you do so at your own risk. Investing can be a very dangerous venture and it is you who must assume the entire cost and risk involved in all of your investment decisions, should you choose to follow this advice or use this information. CommodityBulls.com staff, members of the staff's families, and/or entities with which they are affiliated, may from time to time, buy, sell or hold commodity futures in and have other financial dealings with the companies that appear on the CommodityBulls.com web site, mailings, or publications. The information contained on the CommodityBulls.com web site, mailings, and publications is drawn from sources believed to be factual and reliable, but in no way does CommodityBulls.com represent or guarantee the accuracy or completeness thereof, nor in providing it, does CommodityBulls.com assume any liability. This information is given as of the date appearing on the CommodityBulls.com web site report or mailing, and CommodityBulls.com assumes no obligation to update the information or advice on further developments relating to any named commodities. The information found on the CommodityBulls.com web site, mailings, or publications is protected by the copyright laws of the United States and may not be copied, or reproduced in any way without the expressed, written consent of the editors.

 
     
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